As great as it was to finally see the San Diego Fleet in action last week, the 15-6 loss to the Commanders left more questions than answers heading into this evening’s home opener against the Atlanta Legends.
Coming off an embarrassing 40-6 loss, the Legends are the perfect team for the Fleet to go up against this week as they attempt to win their first game of the season and turn the ship around.
Below are 5 questions and predictions going into tonight’s home opener against the Legends:
Will QB Philip Nelson Take Hold of the Starting Job?
The quarterback position is the most important position in football, and with the Fleet it’s no different. Shortly after the conclusion of last week’s game, Coach Martz wasted little time naming Philip Nelson the starter over Mike Bercovici.
Whether it was because of Bercovici’s struggles through 3 quarters (15-25, 176 yards, 2 INTs), Nelson’s ability to string together a good drive late in the 4th, or a mixture of both, Coach Martz felt it was wise for a change going into week 2.
With a small sample size from Nelson—10 pass attempts last week and only 2 in the preseason game against the Apollos—it’s hard to have much of a read on how he’ll fare. However, this can work out in the Fleet’s favor as the Legend’s have little film to work off of.
While I’m more on the side of giving Bercovici another chance (assuming he’s ok after that huge hit last week), I’m excited to see what Nelson will do in his first professional start against a very beatable team.
Prediction: Nelson doesn’t play fantastic, but does enough to win the game and earn another start next week. A reasonable statline would be 20-32, 165 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
Will the Offensive Line Show Improvement?
A big part of the reason why the quarterback’s struggled (and why the offense mustered only 6 points) was due to the poor blocking up front. The offensive line gave up a league-high 6 sacks, as well as 3 false start penalties. On many plays last week, Bercovici simply had too little time in the pocket and the coaches weren’t doing him many favors by calling screen plays or quick passes.
Despite giving up 40 points last week, the Legends managed to pressure Quarterback Garrett Gilbert 13 times, including 4 QB hits and one sack.
Prediction: Unfortunately, I don’t see this issue going away any time soon. From a stats standpoint, I’d be surprised if the line gives up 6 sacks again simply because the Legends defensive line isn’t as good as what the Fleet saw last week. Plus, I think the Fleet will lead for most of the game and will be running the ball more.
Will the Fleet Defense Pressure QB Matt Simms?
The question mark in every game is whether or not a defense can get pressure on the opposing quarterback. Luckily for the Fleet, perhaps the biggest bright spot last week was the team’s ability to hassle Logan Woodside. Leading the charge was former NY Giants DE Damontre Moore, who had a whopping 9 QB pressures, 1.5 sacks and even a pass deflection. His performance led to on the AAF Team of the Week nomination.
Matt Simms looked shaky to say the least last week (15-28, 126 yards, 2 INTs), but to the Legends credit, they have some playmakers at receiver that have the potential for a great game tonight if the Fleet let Simms (or Aaron Murray) sit in the pocket.
Prediction: With Matt Simms not exactly being Michael Vick when it comes to scrambling, look for Moore and company to have another great game. Getting pressure on Simms will hopefully result in interceptions, like we saw last week from Ron Brooks and Ryan Moeller. I’m expecting 4 total sacks tonight, with 2 coming from Moore.
Can the Fleet Establish the Run?
Despite just 8 carries last week, Ja’Quan Gardner out of Humboldt State really took advantage of his limited action. Averaging 6.9 yards per carry (helped by a 25-yard run), Gardner showed great burst and looked the AAF’s version of Darren Sproles at times.
Since the Fleet trailed all game, Bercovici/Nelson had to throw much more than Fleet fans would have liked, which of course resulted in turnovers and mistakes.
Prediction: Apollos RB’s Akeem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson thrashed the Legends for 7 yards a carry on 15 combined carries last week. With the hope that the Fleet will lead for a chunk of the game, I’d like to see the same from Gardner and former Philadelphia Eagle/Pittsburgh Steeler Terrell Watson. Doing so will help Nelson in his first start and will set up the play action pass later in the game.
Last, But Not Least: Will We See Some Fleet Touchdowns?
As we saw yesterday from the Memphis Express, who were goose egged in week 1 against the Iron, it’s very hard to go touchdown-less in 2 straight games.
Although the Fleet had to settle for two field goals last week, they were able to get the ball in the red zone before mistakes and turnovers reared their head. I’m expecting this game to be much different. Coach Martz is a special offensive mind and I’m more than confident he’ll call a much better game against Atlanta.
I’m also curious to see who Nelson will target the most this game. He connected with Brian Brown twice last week, including a 29-yard strike to get the ball down the Commander’s 8-yard line.
Prediction: There’s no reason the Fleet can’t put up as many points as the Apollos did last week. I think it comes down to offensive line play and if they can give Nelson time to get in a groove early on. When the Fleet get to the red zone, look for power back Terrell Watson to punch it in the end zone once or twice.
Final score prediction: San Diego Fleet 27 Atlanta Legends 14
